Education Spending vs Graduation Rate by State 2026: Chart Analysis
FY2024 public school current spending per pupil is paired with 2023–24 public high school averaged freshman graduation rates (AFGR) for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The matched data support a state-level comparison of spending, graduation outcomes, benchmark positions, and deviations from a single-variable fitted line.
The 2026 title refers to the latest federal data available for publication. Finance data use a fiscal year, while graduation data use an academic year; neither series is labeled as a 2026 measurement.
Spending–Graduation Relationship
National benchmarks and matched-jurisdiction statistics use the latest complete federal series available in 2026.
Spending and Graduation Rates Do Not Form a Strong State-Level Gradient
Each point represents one state or the District of Columbia. National reference lines divide the chart at $17,619 per pupil and 89.0% AFGR.
FY2024 Current Spending per Pupil vs 2023–24 AFGR
X-axis: nominal current spending per pupil. Y-axis: public high school AFGR.
The fitted line slopes slightly downward across the 51 jurisdictions. The U.S. reference values are national aggregates rather than simple averages of the plotted jurisdictions.
Data analysis
- Removing the District of Columbia changes Pearson r from −0.211 to −0.086, so the full-sample slope is sensitive to an extreme high-spending, low-AFGR observation.
- Near-equal spending levels can correspond to widely separated graduation rates, which is visible as vertical spread among points with similar x-values.
Matched State Spending and Graduation Data
Rows are ordered by FY2024 current spending per pupil. Spending and graduation ranks are separate; ties share a graduation rank. Fitted AFGR and residual use one OLS model across all 51 jurisdictions.
| Spend rank | State | Region | Spending / pupil | AFGR | Grad. rank | Fitted AFGR | Residual | Benchmark position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York | Northeast | $31,918 | 86.0% | 31 | 84.5% | +1.5 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 2 | District of Columbia | South | $31,529 | 75.2% | 50 | 84.5% | -9.3 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 3 | Vermont | Northeast | $28,818 | 79.2% | 49 | 85.1% | -5.9 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 4 | New Jersey | Northeast | $27,234 | 89.0% | 20 | 85.4% | +3.6 pp | At/above both |
| 5 | Connecticut | Northeast | $26,316 | 90.8% | 13 | 85.5% | +5.3 pp | At/above both |
| 6 | Massachusetts | Northeast | $24,429 | 90.3% | 15 | 85.9% | +4.4 pp | At/above both |
| 7 | Hawaii | West | $23,878 | 82.2% | 44 | 86.0% | -3.8 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 8 | New Hampshire | Northeast | $22,978 | 85.6% | 33 | 86.2% | -0.6 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 9 | Delaware | South | $22,201 | 89.3% | 18 | 86.3% | +3.0 pp | At/above both |
| 10 | Rhode Island | Northeast | $22,110 | 85.2% | 35 | 86.4% | -1.2 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 11 | Illinois | Midwest | $21,776 | 88.0% | 27 | 86.4% | +1.6 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 12 | Pennsylvania | Northeast | $21,091 | 92.1% | 6 | 86.6% | +5.5 pp | At/above both |
| 13 | Alaska | West | $21,004 | 85.7% | 32 | 86.6% | -0.9 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 14 | California | West | $20,791 | 92.0% | 7 | 86.6% | +5.4 pp | At/above both |
| 15 | Wyoming | West | $20,521 | 83.8% | 39 | 86.7% | -2.9 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 16 | Maryland | South | $20,208 | 88.1% | 26 | 86.7% | +1.4 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 17 | Maine | Northeast | $19,962 | 90.7% | 14 | 86.8% | +3.9 pp | At/above both |
| 18 | Washington | West | $18,564 | 81.9% | 46 | 87.0% | -5.1 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 19 | Michigan | Midwest | $18,314 | 86.4% | 30 | 87.1% | -0.7 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 20 | Oregon | West | $18,083 | 87.7% | 29 | 87.1% | +0.6 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 21 | New Mexico | West | $17,664 | 72.9% | 51 | 87.2% | -14.3 pp | Higher spend / lower AFGR |
| 22 | Ohio | Midwest | $17,257 | 92.0% | 7 | 87.3% | +4.7 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 23 | Virginia | South | $17,104 | 93.4% | 3 | 87.3% | +6.1 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 24 | North Dakota | Midwest | $17,102 | 84.9% | 38 | 87.3% | -2.4 pp | Below both |
| 25 | Minnesota | Midwest | $17,098 | 92.7% | 5 | 87.3% | +5.4 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 26 | Nebraska | Midwest | $16,147 | 92.9% | 4 | 87.5% | +5.4 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 27 | Wisconsin | Midwest | $15,952 | 96.2% | 1 | 87.6% | +8.6 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 28 | Colorado | West | $15,908 | 88.2% | 25 | 87.6% | +0.6 pp | Below both |
| 29 | Georgia | South | $15,833 | 85.4% | 34 | 87.6% | -2.2 pp | Below both |
| 30 | West Virginia | South | $15,640 | 82.2% | 44 | 87.6% | -5.4 pp | Below both |
| 31 | Louisiana | South | $15,581 | 80.9% | 48 | 87.6% | -6.7 pp | Below both |
| 32 | Kansas | Midwest | $15,558 | 94.6% | 2 | 87.6% | +7.0 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 33 | South Carolina | South | $15,060 | 83.7% | 40 | 87.7% | -4.0 pp | Below both |
| 34 | Nevada | West | $14,812 | 85.2% | 35 | 87.8% | -2.6 pp | Below both |
| 35 | Kentucky | South | $14,596 | 89.9% | 16 | 87.8% | +2.1 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 36 | Iowa | Midwest | $14,369 | 92.0% | 7 | 87.9% | +4.1 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 37 | Missouri | Midwest | $14,241 | 91.1% | 12 | 87.9% | +3.2 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 38 | Arkansas | South | $13,873 | 88.7% | 22 | 88.0% | +0.7 pp | Below both |
| 39 | Montana | West | $13,656 | 82.8% | 42 | 88.0% | -5.2 pp | Below both |
| 40 | Alabama | South | $13,627 | 85.1% | 37 | 88.0% | -2.9 pp | Below both |
| 41 | Indiana | Midwest | $13,622 | 91.3% | 10 | 88.0% | +3.3 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 42 | North Carolina | South | $12,995 | 88.8% | 21 | 88.1% | +0.7 pp | Below both |
| 43 | Texas | South | $12,895 | 91.2% | 11 | 88.1% | +3.1 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 44 | Tennessee | South | $12,882 | 83.3% | 41 | 88.1% | -4.8 pp | Below both |
| 45 | South Dakota | Midwest | $12,828 | 81.4% | 47 | 88.2% | -6.8 pp | Below both |
| 46 | Florida | South | $12,693 | 89.7% | 17 | 88.2% | +1.5 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 47 | Mississippi | South | $12,324 | 82.3% | 43 | 88.3% | -6.0 pp | Below both |
| 48 | Oklahoma | South | $12,162 | 88.7% | 22 | 88.3% | +0.4 pp | Below both |
| 49 | Arizona | West | $12,003 | 88.0% | 27 | 88.3% | -0.3 pp | Below both |
| 50 | Utah | West | $11,347 | 89.3% | 18 | 88.4% | +0.9 pp | Lower spend / higher AFGR |
| 51 | Idaho | West | $11,060 | 88.6% | 24 | 88.5% | +0.1 pp | Below both |
Table analysis
- New York has the highest FY2024 current spending per pupil at $31,918; Idaho has the lowest at $11,060.
- Wisconsin has the highest 2023–24 AFGR at 96.2%; New Mexico has the lowest at 72.9%.
Where States Fall Relative to Both U.S. Benchmarks
The four groups use $17,619 per pupil and 89.0% AFGR. A value equal to a benchmark is placed on the at-or-above side.
At or Above Both Benchmarks
7 jurisdictions
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania.
Higher Spending, Below-National AFGR
14 jurisdictions
Alaska, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wyoming.
Lower Spending, At-or-Above-National AFGR
13 jurisdictions
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Below Both Benchmarks
17 jurisdictions
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia.
Largest Deviations from the Spending Trend
Residual equals actual AFGR minus fitted AFGR from the 51-jurisdiction OLS line.
Positive residuals sit above the one-variable fitted line; negative residuals sit below it. Residuals are descriptive and are not efficiency scores.
Data analysis
- Wisconsin (+8.6 pp), Kansas (+7.0 pp), and Virginia (+6.1 pp) are among the largest positive residuals.
- New Mexico (−14.3 pp), the District of Columbia (−9.3 pp), South Dakota (−6.8 pp), and Louisiana (−6.7 pp) are among the largest negative residuals.
Nearly Identical Spending, Different Graduation Rates
These pairs are selected for very small FY2024 spending gaps. The comparison isolates dispersion at similar spending levels rather than ranking efficiency.
North Dakota vs Virginia
$17,102 vs $17,104 per pupil
AFGR: 84.9% vs 93.4%
Spending gap: $2; AFGR gap: 8.5 percentage points.
Minnesota vs North Dakota
$17,098 vs $17,102 per pupil
AFGR: 92.7% vs 84.9%
Spending gap: $4; AFGR gap: 7.8 percentage points.
Tennessee vs Texas
$12,882 vs $12,895 per pupil
AFGR: 83.3% vs 91.2%
Spending gap: $13; AFGR gap: 7.9 percentage points.
Kansas vs Louisiana
$15,558 vs $15,581 per pupil
AFGR: 94.6% vs 80.9%
Spending gap: $23; AFGR gap: 13.7 percentage points.
What the Cross-State Pattern Can and Cannot Support
The comparison is most useful as a description of state positions, dispersion, and sensitivity to outlying observations.
National Benchmarks and the Regression Use Different Weighting
The $17,619 spending value and 89.0% AFGR are national aggregates. The correlation and fitted line give each of the 51 jurisdictions one observation, so larger states do not receive more weight.
K–12 Finance and High School Completion Are Different Measurement Populations
Current spending per pupil covers public pre-K–12 operating costs. AFGR is a high school completion estimate based on regular diplomas and an estimated incoming freshman class.
One Fiscal Year Does Not Represent a Graduate’s Full Schooling Exposure
Students graduating in 2023–24 were educated across many prior years. FY2024 spending is a contemporaneous state finance measure, not cumulative spending on that graduating cohort.
Residuals Measure Distance from One Line
A positive residual means actual AFGR is above the rate fitted from spending alone; a negative residual means it is below. The residual does not measure school quality or spending efficiency.
Data Sources, Definitions, and Comparability
U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances, current spending per pupil. FY2024 data were released May 7, 2026.
National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics Table 219.35, public high school averaged freshman graduation rate by state or jurisdiction, 2023–24. The table was prepared in January 2026 from Common Core of Data completion files.
50 states plus the District of Columbia. Region labels follow the four-region Census presentation used with the FY2024 spending data.
Pearson correlation, Spearman rank correlation, and an ordinary least-squares regression of AFGR on spending per pupil use 51 matched jurisdiction rows with no enrollment or population weighting.
Census current spending covers operational costs for public pre-K–12 education and excludes non-pre-K–12 programs, debt service, and capital outlay. Census states that FY2024 figures are not adjusted for inflation or geographic cost-of-living differences. NCES AFGR estimates the share receiving a regular diploma within four years of entering ninth grade using aggregate enrollment and diploma counts; certificates of attendance and high school equivalency credentials are excluded. Spending ranks and AFGR ranks run from higher to lower values; exact ties share a rank. Fitted values and residuals are displayed to one decimal place, while calculations use unrounded values.
The scatter, correlations, and residuals describe one cross-section. They do not estimate how a state’s graduation rate would change after a spending increase or decrease. Regional prices, student populations, district structure, funding mix, diploma requirements, prior-year spending, and other state conditions are not controlled. AFGR is also a different graduation measure from the adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR).