U.S. Graduation Rate vs NAEP Scores by State 2026: Chart Analysis
Public high school averaged freshman graduation rates are compared with 2024 NAEP reading and mathematics scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The comparison tests whether states with higher estimated four-year diploma completion rates also tend to report higher assessment scores.
The 2026 label identifies the analysis edition. Graduation data cover the 2023–24 school year, while NAEP scores come from the 2024 assessment. AFGR is based on aggregate enrollment and diploma counts and is separate from the adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR).
Graduation–Achievement Snapshot
The summary uses the national public-school AFGR and published 2024 state NAEP scale scores. Grade 8 mathematics remains the default comparison because it has the strongest linear relationship with graduation rates among the four measures tested.
Graduation Rate and NAEP Scores by State
Each point represents one state or the District of Columbia. The selector changes the NAEP grade and subject while retaining the same 2023–24 graduation-rate axis.
The fitted line and model values use the published rounded state figures shown in the table. Reference lines mark the national AFGR and the selected 2024 NAEP score.
The four measures do not align equally
- Grade 8 mathematics has the strongest linear relationship with graduation rates: r = 0.437 and R² = 0.191.
- Grade 4 reading has the weakest relationship: r = 0.234; its rank-order relationship is 0.059.
- All four correlations are positive, but none makes graduation rate a substitute for an assessment score.
State Graduation and NAEP Score Crosswalk
The table keeps the two reporting periods separate: 2023–24 for AFGR and 2024 for NAEP. The final column groups each jurisdiction against the national graduation-rate and grade 8 mathematics reference values.
| State | AFGR | G4 read | G4 math | G8 read | G8 math | National profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 85.1% | 213 | 236 | 250 | 262 | Below both |
| Alaska | 85.7% | 202 | 226 | 246 | 264 | Below both |
| Arizona | 88.0% | 208 | 232 | 254 | 270 | Below both |
| Arkansas | 88.7% | 210 | 230 | 255 | 266 | Below both |
| California | 92.0% | 212 | 233 | 254 | 269 | At/above AFGR only |
| Colorado | 88.2% | 221 | 239 | 265 | 278 | At/above G8 math only |
| Connecticut | 90.8% | 219 | 239 | 263 | 277 | At/above both |
| Delaware | 89.3% | 210 | 233 | 249 | 263 | At/above AFGR only |
| District of Columbia | 75.2% | 209 | 231 | 251 | 262 | Below both |
| Florida | 89.7% | 218 | 243 | 253 | 267 | At/above AFGR only |
| Georgia | 85.4% | 214 | 236 | 259 | 269 | Below both |
| Hawaii | 82.2% | 216 | 239 | 257 | 270 | Below both |
| Idaho | 88.6% | 216 | 238 | 261 | 278 | At/above G8 math only |
| Illinois | 88.0% | 214 | 236 | 262 | 277 | At/above G8 math only |
| Indiana | 91.3% | 220 | 240 | 262 | 278 | At/above both |
| Iowa | 92.0% | 215 | 237 | 261 | 275 | At/above both |
| Kansas | 94.6% | 213 | 237 | 255 | 274 | At/above both |
| Kentucky | 89.9% | 218 | 238 | 258 | 271 | At/above AFGR only |
| Louisiana | 80.9% | 216 | 235 | 257 | 267 | Below both |
| Maine | 90.7% | 210 | 233 | 255 | 273 | At/above AFGR only |
| Maryland | 88.1% | 216 | 234 | 258 | 268 | Below both |
| Massachusetts | 90.3% | 225 | 246 | 268 | 283 | At/above both |
| Michigan | 86.4% | 209 | 235 | 255 | 270 | Below both |
| Minnesota | 92.7% | 214 | 241 | 260 | 282 | At/above both |
| Mississippi | 82.3% | 219 | 239 | 253 | 269 | Below both |
| Missouri | 91.1% | 212 | 235 | 255 | 270 | At/above AFGR only |
| Montana | 82.8% | 217 | 238 | 261 | 279 | At/above G8 math only |
| Nebraska | 92.9% | 212 | 238 | 256 | 280 | At/above both |
| Nevada | 85.2% | 213 | 233 | 253 | 265 | Below both |
| New Hampshire | 85.6% | 221 | 242 | 264 | 280 | At/above G8 math only |
| New Jersey | 89.0% | 222 | 240 | 266 | 282 | At/above both |
| New Mexico | 72.9% | 201 | 224 | 245 | 256 | Below both |
| New York | 86.0% | 215 | 234 | 257 | 271 | Below both |
| North Carolina | 88.8% | 213 | 239 | 255 | 276 | At/above G8 math only |
| North Dakota | 84.9% | 216 | 241 | 257 | 280 | At/above G8 math only |
| Ohio | 92.0% | 216 | 239 | 260 | 279 | At/above both |
| Oklahoma | 88.7% | 207 | 233 | 249 | 264 | Below both |
| Oregon | 87.7% | 207 | 229 | 255 | 268 | Below both |
| Pennsylvania | 92.1% | 216 | 238 | 259 | 276 | At/above both |
| Rhode Island | 85.2% | 216 | 237 | 258 | 270 | Below both |
| South Carolina | 83.7% | 215 | 238 | 254 | 268 | Below both |
| South Dakota | 81.4% | 214 | 240 | 260 | 281 | At/above G8 math only |
| Tennessee | 83.3% | 215 | 240 | 259 | 276 | At/above G8 math only |
| Texas | 91.2% | 212 | 241 | 252 | 269 | At/above AFGR only |
| Utah | 89.3% | 219 | 242 | 261 | 282 | At/above both |
| Vermont | 79.2% | 213 | 235 | 257 | 276 | At/above G8 math only |
| Virginia | 93.4% | 214 | 238 | 256 | 275 | At/above both |
| Washington | 81.9% | 216 | 238 | 259 | 274 | At/above G8 math only |
| West Virginia | 82.2% | 206 | 232 | 247 | 261 | Below both |
| Wisconsin | 96.2% | 215 | 239 | 260 | 283 | At/above both |
| Wyoming | 83.8% | 222 | 243 | 260 | 278 | At/above G8 math only |
Four state profiles emerge from the grade 8 math comparison
- 13 jurisdictions are at or above both national reference values, while 19 fall below both.
- 12 jurisdictions combine a below-national graduation rate with an at-or-above-national grade 8 math score.
- 7 jurisdictions combine an at-or-above-national graduation rate with a below-national grade 8 math score.
How the Relationship Changes by Grade and Subject
The same graduation-rate series produces different relationships when the NAEP subject or grade changes. Separate tables show correlation strength, model residuals, and pairs of states with nearly equal graduation rates.
Correlation Across Four NAEP Measures
Pearson r measures the linear relationship. Spearman rho compares rank order. R² reports the share of score variation described by the one-variable linear fit.
| NAEP measure | Pearson r | Spearman rho | R² | Observed direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 4 reading | 0.234 | 0.059 | 0.055 | Positive |
| Grade 4 mathematics | 0.331 | 0.212 | 0.110 | Positive |
| Grade 8 reading | 0.313 | 0.206 | 0.098 | Positive |
| Grade 8 mathematics | 0.437 | 0.349 | 0.191 | Positive; strongest of four |
Grade 8 mathematics separates from the other measures
- Grade 8 mathematics records the largest Pearson and Spearman coefficients after the graduation-rate update.
- Grade 4 mathematics and grade 8 reading remain in the middle of the four linear relationships, while grade 4 reading is the weakest.
- The coefficients describe state-level association and do not identify the reason for the pattern.
Grade 8 Mathematics Above and Below the Graduation-Rate Trend
Residuals compare each reported score with the score estimated from the state graduation rate. They are model differences, not education-quality grades.
| Position | State | AFGR | Actual score | Expected score | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above trend | South Dakota | 81.4% | 281 | 269.0 | +12.0 |
| Above trend | Montana | 82.8% | 279 | 269.9 | +9.1 |
| Above trend | North Dakota | 84.9% | 280 | 271.2 | +8.8 |
| Above trend | Massachusetts | 90.3% | 283 | 274.5 | +8.5 |
| Above trend | New Hampshire | 85.6% | 280 | 271.6 | +8.4 |
| Below trend | Delaware | 89.3% | 263 | 273.9 | −10.9 |
| Below trend | Oklahoma | 88.7% | 264 | 273.5 | −9.5 |
| Below trend | Alabama | 85.1% | 262 | 271.3 | −9.3 |
| Below trend | West Virginia | 82.2% | 261 | 269.5 | −8.5 |
| Below trend | New Mexico | 72.9% | 256 | 263.8 | −7.8 |
Large residuals appear on both sides of the national graduation rate
- South Dakota sits furthest above the fitted grade 8 math line at about +12.0 scale-score points.
- Delaware has the largest negative residual at about −10.9 points.
- Massachusetts combines an above-national AFGR with a grade 8 math score about 8.5 points above the fitted value.
Near-Equal Graduation Rates, Wide Grade 8 Score Gaps
The selected pairs differ by no more than 0.5 percentage point in AFGR. Pairs are chosen to avoid repeating a state and to surface the largest combined reading and mathematics gaps.
| State pair | AFGR values | AFGR gap | G8 reading | Read gap | G8 math | Math gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware — New Jersey | 89.3% — 89.0% | 0.3 pts | 249 — 266 | 17 pts | 263 — 282 | 19 pts |
| Alaska — New Hampshire | 85.7% — 85.6% | 0.1 pts | 246 — 264 | 18 pts | 264 — 280 | 16 pts |
| Colorado — Oklahoma | 88.2% — 88.7% | 0.5 pts | 265 — 249 | 16 pts | 278 — 264 | 14 pts |
| Alabama — North Dakota | 85.1% — 84.9% | 0.2 pts | 250 — 257 | 7 pts | 262 — 280 | 18 pts |
| Washington — West Virginia | 81.9% — 82.2% | 0.3 pts | 259 — 247 | 12 pts | 274 — 261 | 13 pts |
Similar completion rates can conceal different assessment profiles
- Delaware and New Jersey are separated by 0.3 percentage point in AFGR but by 17 reading points and 19 mathematics points.
- Alaska and New Hampshire differ by 0.1 percentage point in AFGR while their grade 8 reading and mathematics scores differ by 18 and 16 points.
- The pair results show why an AFGR rank cannot be treated as an academic-score rank.
Why Completion and Assessment Rankings Separate
Graduation and NAEP indicators overlap only partly because they represent different stages of schooling and use different reporting systems.
Graduation Estimate and Scale Scores
AFGR estimates the percentage of public high school students receiving a regular diploma within four years by using aggregate enrollment and diploma counts. NAEP estimates reading or mathematics performance from a sample of students in a specified grade.
Different Student Groups
The 2023–24 graduation estimate is not the same student population as the students assessed in grades 4 and 8 during 2024. The comparison describes state-level indicators rather than student-level progression.
State Graduation Context
Graduation requirements, diploma pathways, student mobility, and reporting practices differ across states. NAEP scores do not measure the requirements attached to a state diploma.
Residuals Are Conditional Differences
A positive residual means a score is above the fitted value for that graduation rate. It does not show that a state exceeded an independent performance target.
Data Sources, Measurement, and Comparability
National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2025, Table 219.35, public high school averaged freshman graduation rate by state or jurisdiction through school year 2023–24.
National Assessment of Educational Progress, 2024 Reading Assessment, state results for grades 4 and 8.
National Assessment of Educational Progress, 2024 Mathematics Assessment, state results for grades 4 and 8.
Published state score tables were cross-checked against official education-agency tables and the NCSES state workbook sourced to NAEP.
Grade 4 reading table · Grade 8 reading table · Grade 4 math table · Grade 8 math workbook
The matched dataset contains 50 states and the District of Columbia. AFGR is a percentage estimate. NAEP reading and mathematics results are average scale scores on a 0–500 scale.
The quadrant profiles use 89.0% for AFGR and 2024 public-school scores of 214 for grade 4 reading, 237 for grade 4 math, 257 for grade 8 reading, and 274 for grade 8 math.
AFGR estimates the percentage of public high school students who receive a regular diploma within four years of entering ninth grade, using aggregate enrollment and diploma counts rather than an individual student cohort. Pearson r, Spearman rho, and ordinary least-squares residuals were calculated across 51 jurisdictions using the published rounded values. Expected scores come from a separate one-variable regression for each NAEP measure. Values may differ slightly from calculations based on unrounded estimates.
The scatter plots show state-level association, not causation. NAEP is sample-based, and small score differences may fall within sampling uncertainty. The 2023–24 graduation estimate and the 2024 grade 4 and grade 8 assessment samples represent different student populations. A high or low residual does not establish that diploma requirements are easier, harder, more effective, or less effective in a state.