U.S. Student-Teacher Ratio vs Graduation Rate by State 2026
Statewide pupil/teacher ratios describe the number of public school students per full-time-equivalent teacher. Averaged freshman graduation rates estimate the share of public high school students receiving a regular diploma within four years of entering ninth grade.
The paired analysis uses 2024–25 CCD pupil/teacher ratios and 2023–24 AFGR values. NCES does not publish a 2024–25 pupil/teacher ratio for Tennessee, so the statistical comparison contains 50 jurisdictions; Tennessee remains in the table with its graduation rate and an unavailable staffing ratio.
Reference Values and Relationship Strength
NCES does not publish a 2024–25 U.S. pupil/teacher ratio because Tennessee teacher data are unavailable. The staffing reference below is the median of the 50 published jurisdiction ratios, while the graduation reference is the reported U.S. AFGR.
State Staffing Levels and Graduation Outcomes
Each point represents a jurisdiction with both published measures. Lower horizontal values indicate fewer students per full-time-equivalent teacher.
The vertical line marks the 13.75 median of published 2024–25 jurisdiction ratios, not a U.S. ratio. The horizontal line marks the 89.0% U.S. AFGR, and the fitted regression line uses the 50 matched observations.
The updated relationship is weak and positive
- The Pearson correlation is +0.207, so the fitted line slopes slightly upward rather than downward.
- The simple linear fit has an R² of 0.043, leaving about 95.7% of cross-jurisdiction AFGR variation outside this one-variable fit.
- The fitted equation is AFGR = 81.92 + 0.367 × pupil/teacher ratio. The association is descriptive and does not identify a staffing effect.
Full State Indicator Pair Table
Ratio and graduation ranks use the 50 jurisdictions with both published values. Rank gap equals graduation rank minus ratio rank. Expected AFGR and residual values come from the 50-jurisdiction linear model.
| Ratio rank | State | Students per teacher | Vs. ratio median | 2023–24 AFGR | Vs. U.S. AFGR | Graduation rank | Rank gap | Expected AFGR | Residual | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 10.3 | −3.4 | 79.2% | −9.8 pp | 48 | +47 | 85.7% | −6.5 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 2 | District of Columbia | 10.9 | −2.8 | 75.2% | −13.8 pp | 49 | +47 | 85.9% | −10.7 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 3 | Maine | 11.0 | −2.8 | 90.7% | +1.7 pp | 14 | +11 | 86.0% | +4.7 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 4 | New Hampshire | 11.4 | −2.3 | 85.6% | −3.4 pp | 33 | +29 | 86.1% | −0.5 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 5 | North Dakota | 11.5 | −2.2 | 84.9% | −4.1 pp | 38 | +33 | 86.1% | −1.2 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 6 | New York | 11.6 | −2.2 | 86.0% | −3.0 pp | 31 | +25 | 86.2% | −0.2 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 7 | Connecticut | 11.8 | −1.9 | 90.8% | +1.8 pp | 13 | +6 | 86.3% | +4.5 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 8 | New Jersey | 11.8 | −1.9 | 89.0% | 0.0 pp | 20 | +12 | 86.3% | +2.7 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 9 | Massachusetts | 11.9 | −1.8 | 90.3% | +1.3 pp | 15 | +6 | 86.3% | +4.0 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 10 | Wyoming | 12.1 | −1.7 | 83.8% | −5.2 pp | 39 | +29 | 86.4% | −2.6 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 11 | New Mexico | 12.4 | −1.3 | 72.9% | −16.1 pp | 50 | +39 | 86.5% | −13.6 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 12 | Arkansas | 12.5 | −1.2 | 88.7% | −0.3 pp | 22 | +10 | 86.5% | +2.2 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 13 | Missouri | 12.6 | −1.2 | 91.1% | +2.1 pp | 12 | −1 | 86.5% | +4.6 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 12.9 | −0.8 | 85.2% | −3.8 pp | 36 | +22 | 86.7% | −1.5 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 15 | Pennsylvania | 13.0 | −0.8 | 92.1% | +3.1 pp | 6 | −9 | 86.7% | +5.4 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 16 | Kansas | 13.2 | −0.6 | 94.6% | +5.6 pp | 2 | −14 | 86.8% | +7.8 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 17 | Virginia | 13.3 | −0.4 | 93.4% | +4.4 pp | 3 | −14 | 86.8% | +6.6 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 18 | Illinois | 13.4 | −0.3 | 88.0% | −1.0 pp | 28 | +10 | 86.8% | +1.2 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 19 | West Virginia | 13.4 | −0.3 | 82.2% | −6.8 pp | 44 | +25 | 86.8% | −4.6 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 20 | Mississippi | 13.5 | −0.2 | 82.3% | −6.7 pp | 42 | +22 | 86.9% | −4.6 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 13.6 | −0.2 | 96.2% | +7.2 pp | 1 | −20 | 86.9% | +9.3 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 22 | Hawaii | 13.7 | −0.1 | 82.2% | −6.8 pp | 43 | +21 | 87.0% | −4.8 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 23 | Louisiana | 13.7 | −0.1 | 80.9% | −8.1 pp | 47 | +24 | 87.0% | −6.1 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 24 | Montana | 13.7 | −0.1 | 82.8% | −6.2 pp | 41 | +17 | 87.0% | −4.2 pp | At/below median ratio / below graduation |
| 25 | Nebraska | 13.7 | −0.1 | 92.9% | +3.9 pp | 4 | −21 | 87.0% | +5.9 pp | At/below median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 26 | South Carolina | 13.8 | +0.1 | 83.7% | −5.3 pp | 40 | +14 | 87.0% | −3.3 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 27 | South Dakota | 13.8 | +0.1 | 81.4% | −7.6 pp | 46 | +19 | 87.0% | −5.6 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 28 | Iowa | 13.9 | +0.2 | 92.0% | +3.0 pp | 8 | −20 | 87.0% | +5.0 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 29 | Georgia | 14.1 | +0.3 | 85.4% | −3.6 pp | 34 | +5 | 87.1% | −1.7 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 30 | Maryland | 14.1 | +0.3 | 88.1% | −0.9 pp | 26 | −4 | 87.1% | +1.0 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 31 | Delaware | 14.8 | +1.1 | 89.3% | +0.3 pp | 18 | −13 | 87.4% | +1.9 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 32 | Texas | 14.9 | +1.2 | 91.2% | +2.2 pp | 11 | −21 | 87.4% | +3.8 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 33 | Minnesota | 15.0 | +1.2 | 92.7% | +3.7 pp | 5 | −28 | 87.4% | +5.3 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 34 | Indiana | 15.4 | +1.7 | 91.3% | +2.3 pp | 10 | −24 | 87.6% | +3.7 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 35 | Kentucky | 15.4 | +1.7 | 89.9% | +0.9 pp | 16 | −19 | 87.6% | +2.3 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 36 | North Carolina | 16.0 | +2.2 | 88.8% | −0.2 pp | 21 | −15 | 87.8% | +1.0 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 37 | Colorado | 16.2 | +2.4 | 88.2% | −0.8 pp | 25 | −12 | 87.9% | +0.3 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 38 | Oklahoma | 16.2 | +2.4 | 88.7% | −0.3 pp | 23 | −15 | 87.9% | +0.8 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 39 | Michigan | 16.5 | +2.8 | 86.4% | −2.6 pp | 30 | −9 | 88.0% | −1.6 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 40 | Ohio | 16.6 | +2.9 | 92.0% | +3.0 pp | 9 | −31 | 88.0% | +4.0 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 41 | Alabama | 17.4 | +3.6 | 85.1% | −3.9 pp | 37 | −4 | 88.3% | −3.2 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 42 | Oregon | 17.4 | +3.6 | 87.7% | −1.3 pp | 29 | −13 | 88.3% | −0.6 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 43 | Idaho | 17.7 | +3.9 | 88.6% | −0.4 pp | 24 | −19 | 88.4% | +0.2 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 44 | Arizona | 17.8 | +4.1 | 88.0% | −1.0 pp | 27 | −17 | 88.5% | −0.5 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 45 | Washington | 17.9 | +4.1 | 81.9% | −7.1 pp | 45 | 0 | 88.5% | −6.6 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 46 | Florida | 18.3 | +4.6 | 89.7% | +0.7 pp | 17 | −29 | 88.6% | +1.1 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 47 | Alaska | 18.9 | +5.1 | 85.7% | −3.3 pp | 32 | −15 | 88.9% | −3.2 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 48 | Nevada | 19.5 | +5.8 | 85.2% | −3.8 pp | 35 | −13 | 89.1% | −3.9 pp | Above median ratio / below graduation |
| 49 | Utah | 21.6 | +7.9 | 89.3% | +0.3 pp | 19 | −30 | 89.9% | −0.6 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| 50 | California | 21.7 | +7.9 | 92.0% | +3.0 pp | 7 | −43 | 89.9% | +2.1 pp | Above median ratio / at/above graduation |
| — | Tennessee | — | — | 83.3% | −5.7 pp | — | — | — | — | Ratio unavailable |
Rank gaps remain large in both directions
- California ranks 50th on the lower-ratio measure but 7th on AFGR among the matched jurisdictions, a rank gap of −43.
- Vermont and the District of Columbia each have a +47 rank gap between staffing ratio and graduation position.
- Tennessee is not assigned a ratio rank, model estimate, residual, or quadrant because its 2024–25 ratio is unavailable.
Four Patterns Around the Reference Lines
The scatter plot uses the 13.75 published-jurisdiction ratio median and the 89.0% U.S. AFGR to form four groups. These are descriptive positions, not school-quality categories.
At/below median ratio and at/above U.S. AFGR
These jurisdictions combine a ratio at or below 13.75 with an AFGR of at least 89.0%.
Above median ratio and at/above U.S. AFGR
These jurisdictions clear the national graduation reference while sitting above the published-ratio median.
At/below median ratio and below U.S. AFGR
This group shows that a lower statewide staffing ratio does not by itself imply a higher graduation estimate.
Above median ratio and below U.S. AFGR
These jurisdictions sit above the ratio median and below the national graduation reference.
Graduation Rates Across Staffing Bands
Jurisdictions are grouped by their 2024–25 pupil/teacher ratio. Each bar shows the unweighted mean 2023–24 AFGR within the band.
The 14.0–15.9 band has the highest average AFGR at 89.7%. Tennessee is excluded because its 2024–25 pupil/teacher ratio is unavailable.
High- and low-ratio groups overlap in graduation outcomes
- The ten jurisdictions with the lowest published ratios average 85.5% AFGR.
- The ten jurisdictions with the highest published ratios average 87.3% AFGR.
- The difference between those two unweighted group averages is 1.8 percentage points, consistent with the weak positive correlation rather than a strong statewide staffing gradient.
Largest Regression Residuals
Residuals are the reported 2023–24 AFGR minus the value estimated from the 2024–25 pupil/teacher ratio. They describe distance from the fitted line, not performance grades.
| Position | State | Ratio | AFGR | Expected AFGR | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above trend | Wisconsin | 13.6 | 96.2% | 86.9% | +9.3 pp |
| Above trend | Kansas | 13.2 | 94.6% | 86.8% | +7.8 pp |
| Above trend | Virginia | 13.3 | 93.4% | 86.8% | +6.6 pp |
| Above trend | Nebraska | 13.7 | 92.9% | 87.0% | +5.9 pp |
| Above trend | Pennsylvania | 13.0 | 92.1% | 86.7% | +5.4 pp |
| Below trend | New Mexico | 12.4 | 72.9% | 86.5% | −13.6 pp |
| Below trend | District of Columbia | 10.9 | 75.2% | 85.9% | −10.7 pp |
| Below trend | Washington | 17.9 | 81.9% | 88.5% | −6.6 pp |
| Below trend | Vermont | 10.3 | 79.2% | 85.7% | −6.5 pp |
| Below trend | Louisiana | 13.7 | 80.9% | 87.0% | −6.1 pp |
The largest model departures occur on both sides of the line
- Wisconsin has the largest positive residual at about +9.3 percentage points.
- New Mexico has the largest negative residual at about −13.6 percentage points.
- The residual spread is another indication that pupil/teacher ratio alone describes little of the cross-jurisdiction graduation variation.
Similar Ratios, Different Graduation Results
Close staffing ratios can accompany large AFGR gaps. The comparisons below use pairs separated by no more than 0.2 student per teacher.
Missouri and New Mexico
12.6 vs. 12.4 students per teacher
91.1% vs. 72.9% AFGR
The graduation gap is 18.2 percentage points with a ratio difference of 0.2.
District of Columbia and Maine
10.9 vs. 11.0 students per teacher
75.2% vs. 90.7% AFGR
The graduation gap is 15.5 percentage points with a ratio difference of 0.1.
Louisiana and Wisconsin
13.7 vs. 13.6 students per teacher
80.9% vs. 96.2% AFGR
The graduation gap is 15.3 percentage points with a ratio difference of 0.1.
Kansas and West Virginia
13.2 vs. 13.4 students per teacher
94.6% vs. 82.2% AFGR
The graduation gap is 12.4 percentage points with a ratio difference of 0.2.
Regional Ratio and Graduation Spread
Regional figures are unweighted averages of matched jurisdictions in each U.S. Census region. District of Columbia is included in the South; Tennessee is excluded from paired regional calculations.
| Region | Matched jurisdictions | Average ratio | Average AFGR | Ratio range | AFGR range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 9 | 11.7 | 87.7% | 10.3–13.0 | 79.2–92.1% |
| Midwest | 12 | 14.1 | 90.3% | 11.5–16.6 | 81.4–96.2% |
| South | 16 | 14.5 | 86.4% | 10.9–18.3 | 75.2–93.4% |
| West | 13 | 17.0 | 85.3% | 12.1–21.7 | 72.9–92.0% |
Regional averages still contain wide state variation
- The Northeast has the lowest regional average ratio at 11.7, while the Midwest has the highest average AFGR at 90.3%.
- The West averages 17.0 students per teacher and 85.3% AFGR, with state values spanning 12.1–21.7 on the ratio and 72.9–92.0% on graduation.
What the State Comparison Can and Cannot Show
The paired indicators describe statewide staffing concentration and an estimated four-year diploma completion rate. Several features of state education systems remain outside the two-axis comparison.
Pupil/teacher ratio is not class size
The ratio divides total student membership by full-time-equivalent teachers. It includes teachers assigned to special education, intervention, subject areas, and other instructional roles that do not map one-for-one to a single classroom roster.
State averages hide district distribution
A low statewide ratio may reflect many small rural schools, while large urban districts in the same state can face different staffing conditions. The state average does not show teacher vacancies, subject shortages, or school-level allocation.
AFGR uses aggregate counts
AFGR estimates an incoming freshman class from aggregate enrollment data and compares that estimate with regular-diploma counts four years later. It is not the adjusted cohort graduation rate and does not track individual students through cohort transfers.
Other conditions shape completion
Attendance, economic disadvantage, student mobility, credit accumulation, counseling access, teacher experience, and local graduation requirements can vary independently of the statewide pupil/teacher ratio.
Data Coverage and Comparability
Staffing source
National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data, Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey, Local Education Agency Universe Survey, and State Nonfiscal Survey, school year 2024–25, Final Version 1a.
Staffing measure
Public school membership from prekindergarten through grade 13 divided by full-time-equivalent teachers. Adult education membership is excluded. NCES does not publish the 2024–25 Tennessee teacher FTE or pupil/teacher ratio.
Graduation source
National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, Table 219.35, public high school averaged freshman graduation rate by state or jurisdiction through 2023–24.
Graduation measure
AFGR estimates the percentage of students receiving a regular diploma within four years of entering ninth grade. It uses aggregate grade enrollment and graduate counts rather than an individually tracked adjusted cohort.
Coverage
The page displays all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Statistical calculations use 50 matched jurisdictions because Tennessee lacks a published 2024–25 pupil/teacher ratio.
Reference lines
No 2024–25 U.S. pupil/teacher ratio is published. The vertical scatter reference is the exact median of the 50 published jurisdiction ratios, 13.75, displayed as 13.8. The horizontal reference is the reported 89.0% U.S. AFGR for 2023–24.
Ranking method
Lower pupil/teacher ratios receive better numerical ratio ranks, while higher AFGR values receive better graduation ranks. Ranks and rank gaps use the same 50 matched jurisdictions, with state name ordering equal displayed values.
Statistical method
Pearson correlation and ordinary least-squares regression use 50 unweighted jurisdiction observations. The fitted model is AFGR = 81.92 + 0.367 × pupil/teacher ratio. No enrollment, poverty, regional cost, or demographic adjustment is applied.
Rounding
Ratios and graduation rates use the published one-decimal precision. Expected values and residuals are calculated from those displayed inputs and shown to one decimal place.
The 2026 label identifies the publication and analysis cycle. It does not recast the 2024–25 staffing observations or 2023–24 graduation estimates as 2026 measurements.
The scatter plot combines a 2024–25 staffing measure with a 2023–24 graduation estimate and cannot establish cause and effect. A statewide pupil/teacher ratio is not average class size, and AFGR is an aggregate estimate rather than an individually tracked cohort rate. The correlation and regression describe cross-jurisdiction association only.